EDITORIAL
By Christopher S. McChesney
As recent as two years ago, the housing market in Northeast Florida, as well as the majority of the nation, was booming. There were more buyers than sellers, interest rates were low, and high loan-to-value mortgages were all the rage. As a result, however, the inflation rate was rising to concerning levels. In an effort to curb the inflation rate, the Federal Reserve embarked on a plan of interest rate increases to slow the real estate boom.
Directly following sixteen interest rate hikes in a row, which marked five year highs, the housing market found itself deep in a recessionary slump. High foreclosure rates and falling home values were the result of the Fed’s actions as Adjustable Rate Mortgages began to adjust to the higher interest rates. Recognizing the housing market was in serious turmoil, the Federal Reserve attempted to slow the housing recession by lowering interest rates once again.
While lowering rates may help in the long run, it may not positively affect the short term housing woes. For many homeowners, the help may be coming too late. Foreclosures are the highest they have been in years and short sales are commonplace. A number of homeowners are choosing to walk away from their home and let it fall into foreclosure rather than keep paying on a property that has lost upwards of 20% of the value from a couple years ago. While government officials are not directly admitting it, we are experiencing a housing recession.
As you drive down residential streets in Northeast Florida, you see sign after sign marking homes for sale. Each one announcing deep buyer discounts with riders that indicate “short sale” and “reduced price” properties. Houses are sitting unsold on the market for months as the number of foreclosures increase day by day. New housing development areas that were once booming are now sitting motionless.
As you drive down Oakleaf Village Parkway, in the newly developed Oakleaf Plantation community on the west side of Jacksonville, you see wood framed structures, gray from the ravages of time and weather, that have been abandoned by the builder. The builder simply stopped building in the middle of the process and left the half finished homes standing at a halt, deserted like an old ghost town. The nationwide builder, Centex, has recently announced that they, too, are leaving the Northeast Florida market and will no longer build homes in the area. Real estate inventory is extremely high and the buyer pool is miniscule in comparison. The situation definitely looks dismal.
While many homeowners are tightening their money belts in an effort to deal with the situation at hand, there are many real estate investors waiting in the wings to purchase homes. The current economic recipe for real estate investment appears to be just right. Interest rates are once again low and home prices are deeply discounted. At the moment, inventory is very high, so there are plenty of choices for the discriminating investor. So, if all of that is fact, why aren’t real estate investors snapping up all the low priced homes in the area?
Many real estate investors feel that the housing market in Northeast Florida has not yet hit bottom. Everyone wants to buy at bottom and sell at the top, but nobody wants to buy on the way down. There is still wiggle room for home prices to continue to drop. In fact, while sales prices in the area have fallen, the percentage decrease is less than that of most other large cities. Prices could, feasibly, continue to drop in Northeast Florida to percentage levels matching other cities. As long as housing supply is large and demand is small, the housing market will continue to struggle.
Despite the efforts of the federal government to stimulate the real estate market, the only true cure for the housing recession is time. Over time, the free trade economic system will take over and supply and demand in the real estate market will correct itself. The goal is for homeowners to hold on until the correction occurs and home prices begin to increase once again. If possible, getting into a low rate, long term mortgage is an excellent method of weathering the economic storm. Other options include tightening the family money belt, getting a second job until the housing market improves, or working with a Realtor to invoke a short sell on the property.
Depending on individual circumstances, walking away and letting the bank foreclose may not be the best option. A foreclosure and/or bankruptcy will remain on your credit report for up to ten years and will drastically decrease your ability to get future loans, credit cards, and may even make it difficult to rent. As an alternative to foreclosure, endeavor to hold on as long as possible as we endure this recession together. In the long run, housing prices will rebound and increase once again. As history has proven, Northeast Florida will recover from the hard times and the housing market will return stronger than ever. It may take a year or more for the market to fully recover, but after weathering the storm, the end rewards will be worth the effort.
If you are looking to buy, however, there is no better time than the present. Interest rates are low, housing inventories are high, and asking prices are far below market expectations. This is the strongest Northeast Florida buyers market in the last 25 years. It simply doesn’t get any better than this for buyers.
Please check out my soon to be released book “If One Only Looks: 85 Years of Ghost Stories” at Book.BigRedRabbit.com